A new national poll from American Strategies shows Kamala Harris five points ahead of Donald Trump, 46 percent to 41 percent. Third-party candidates receive a combined 5 percent of the vote; six percent are undecided. Harris also leads in terms of intensity with 40 percent being very certain of their vote for her, compared to 35 percent who are very certain of their support for Trump.
Compared to our last national survey in April, Harris has consolidated traditionally Democratic constituencies that were not yet supporting Biden. Harris is running better among voters under 50 (especially those aged 18-29) and people of color; she has also opened a small lead among self-described independent voters. Most of this movement has come from those who were undecided or supporting a third-party candidate in our last poll. Trump’s base and support remain mostly unchanged, although he has increased his vote share among White voters.
Voters under age 50 show considerable movement. Harris now leads Trump among these younger voters by 9-points (46 percent to 37 percent) – a net swing of 14-points towards Harris from our April survey, where Trump led among the under 50 crowd with 40 percent to 35 percent for Biden. The youngest voters, those aged 18 to 29, now back Harris by 6-points (45 to 39 percent for Trump), reversing Trump’s April lead over Biden (+7-points, 37 to 30 percent). Harris’s increased vote share is a consolidation of younger voters who were undecided with Biden in the race or choosing a third-party candidate. Trump’s total vote share among these younger voters shows no statistical change from April.
Harris’s vote share among seniors remains at the same level, and strength, as Biden registered in our April poll (42 percent Strong Biden; 49 percent Biden total). Trump’s support is strongest among voters aged 50 to 64, where he leads by 2-points (45 to 43 percent).
Harris has also seen a jump in support from African American, Hispanic, and Asian voters compared to Biden support levels in April. Harris’s vote share has increased over Biden’s in April by 24 points among African American and Asian voters, and by 19 points among Hispanic voters. Among White voters, Harris’s vote share is unchanged from Biden’s total in April. Trump, by contrast, has seen increased his support among White voters since April; he now wins fifty percent of Whites, up 10-points from April.
Both Harris and Trump are consolidating partisan support. Independents continue to lean toward the Democrats:
- Self-identified Democrats (Margin of Error (MoE) +/- 5%), support Harris with 91 percent of the vote; 3 percent vote for Donald Trump, 2 percent for a third-party candidate, and 3 percent are not sure. Harris’s vote share among Democrats is an 11-point increase from Biden’s vote share in our April poll.
- Self-identified Republicans (MoE +/- 5%), support Trump with 87 percent of the vote; 6 percent favor Harris, 2 percent vote for a third-party candidate, and 4 percent are not sure who they will vote for. Republican support for Trump has consolidated from April, when he won 81 percent of the vote among Republicans.
- Independent voters (MoE +/- 6.35%) lean toward Harris with 37 percent of the vote compared to 31 percent for Trump. Harris’s vote share among independents is a 5-point increase from our April poll that had Biden winning 32 percent of independent voters. Trump’s share of independent voters is statistically unchanged from April (29 to 31 percent). Independent voters are more likely to support a third-party candidate (13 percent), or be undecided (16 percent)
For further details, or any questions, please contact our Director of Research & Analytics, Bill Simoneau bill.simoneau@amstrat.com
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